Pharma Commercial · Year-One Post-Mortems
What went wrong, year-by-year.
A library of reconstructed post-mortems on real-shaped pharma launch failures — each one a year inside the data that was there, in the system that held it, and the synthesis no one assembled until the year was over.
Aurelia Therapeutics · Zenvara
May 2025 – May 2026
The Eighty-Million-Dollar Miss: A Year Inside the Zenvara Launch
Four signals arrived in different systems, on different cadences, and were each — individually, defensibly — read as something smaller than they were.
forecast $340Mactual $260M−$80M (23.5%)1L NSCLC, PD-L1 high expression
Helika Therapeutics · Cordavex
April 2023 – February 2024
The Eight-Unit Year: A Reconstruction of the Cordavex Launch
A cell-therapy launch shipped eight units in twelve months against a hundred-unit plan and filed for Chapter 11 ten weeks later — not because the science failed, but because four operational systems never connected.
forecast $32Mactual $3M−$29M (92.0%)Cord blood transplantation for hematologic malignancies
About this project. Each post-mortem is backed by a complete mock of the data systems a pharma commercial team actually uses — IQVIA NPA, MMIT, Veeva CRM, HTA portals, payer decisions, Slack, Google Drive. The dashboards under each use case are queryable; the underlying APIs are documented at /docs.